First, a review of last week’s forecast:
– EUR/USD. Billionaire George Soros is confident that further strengthening of the dollar will lead to a new financial crisis. At the same time, 10 out of 60 analysts interviewed by Reuters believe that the growth of the US currency will be completed within a month, 35 are confident that the strengthening of the dollar will last at least until the fall, and another 15 give the USD growth until the end of the year. Experts from ABN Amro are among the latter, they believe that the euro should fall to the level of 1.1000, and only then, in 2019, it will be able to restore some of the lost ground...
First, a review of last week’s forecast:
– EUR/USD. The basic forecast for this pair, supported by the majority of analysts, assumed its growth to the zone of 1.1800-1.1830. The pair went up indeed, fixing the week's high at 1.1839. So, taking into account the standard backlash, the forecast turned out to be absolutely correct. A rebound followed, and, as a result, the pair completed the trading session at the horizon 1.1770...
First, a few words about the behavior of the major currency pairs and cryptocurrency pairs over the past week:
– EUR/USD. The behavior of this pair at the beginning of the week was determined by the fear of the players over possible political changes in Italy. As a result, the pair dropped to the values of a year ago, closely approaching the 1.1500 mark. However, the situation in the eurozone eventually entered a calmer channel, the Italian populists agreed on the composition of the government, and the dollar gradually began to lose its positions. Against this background, the euro managed to win back about 215 points from the "American", and even the positive data on the US labor market on Friday (NFP increased from 159K to 223K) could not fundamentally change the situation. As a result, the pair completed the five-day period almost in the same place, where it started, in the zone of 1.1660...
Traditionally, summer is the time when business activity slows down: VIPs are basking in the sun on their snow-white yachts, the heads of the Central Banks leave the boring offices, setting important tasks aside for the autumn, and they are followed by ordinary traders who get a break. However, even the summer months can present surprises. Suffice it to recall the referendum on the withdrawal of the UK from the EU in June 2016, the results of which literally shocked all the stock and financial markets.
Such breaking news is not expected in the coming three months, but some events will be able to exert a strong, if not decisive, influence on the formation of exchange rates and trends.
First, a review of last week’s forecast:
– EUR/USD. Recall that about 70% of experts expected that the pair would rise at least to the height of 1.2050. However, the bulls' strength dried up before it approached the level of 1.2000, where the initiative was intercepted by the bears. Trend indicators on D1 and 15% of the oscillators sided with them, giving signals that the pair was overbought. As expected, the pair was quick to reach the horizon 1.1800, and then moved further down, having touched the local bottom at the level of 1.1750...
First, a review of last week’s forecast:
– EUR/USD. Recall that the opinions of experts last week were divided almost evenly: one third sided with the bears, one third sided with the bulls, and 30% took a neutral position, expecting a sideways trend. As a result, as if fulfilling an order, the pair first went down to the level of 1.1822, then rose by 145 points and completed the five-day period almost in the same place where it started, in the zone of 1.1940.
In total, in less than a month, from April 19 to May 09, the pair lost about 580 points, without any serious corrections, which caused serious financial damage to those traders who had opened positions to buy against the trend and could not stand such an impressive drawdown of the deposit...
First, a review of last week’s forecast:
– EUR/USD. For the third week in a row, the dollar continues to strengthen its positions, having won back about 500 points from the euro. Easing of tension in trade relations with China has rendered serious support for the US currency. By Friday, May 04, as most experts (60%) supported by 80% of the indicators had expected, the pair reached the lower border of the 1.1915-1.2085 range, after which a slight rebound followed, and it stopped at 1.1960...
First, a review of last week’s forecast:
– as we said, the key event last week was the ECB President Mario Draghi press conference on Thursday, April 26. The pair EUR/USD had descended to the lower boundary of the three-month lateral channel around 1.2200 by that date. Recall that this behavior had been predicted by almost 100% of experts. But further on, their opinions diverged: 75% expected the pair to go up and return to the mid-term trading range, and 25% were confident that the euro would lose its positions further.
The dispute between the analysts was resolved by Mr. Draghi, who admitted that the Eurozone economy was unlikely to preserve the last year's growth rates. And although he said that the ECB will gradually reduce the QE quantitative easing program, many experts felt that its terms will likely be extended beyond 2018. As a result, the euro lost another 150 points. True, then a rebound occurred and the pair completed the week at 1.2130...
First, a review of last week’s forecast:
– The pair EUR/USD continues to keep in the zone of the 2018 mid-term side channel 1.2200-1.2525, more precisely, in its central part, gradually reducing volatility in comparison with the beginning of this year. Last week, the experts called the horizon 1.2215 as the nearest level of support for it, as for resistance, the horizon 1.2410 was named, in the area of which the pair fixed its minimum - 1.2250 and maximum - 1.2413, showing the fluctuation range of less than 165 points. As for the end of the week session, the pair recorded the result at 1.2288...
For starters, a few words about the forecast for the previous week, which turned out to be absolutely true for many major and cryptocurrency pairs:
– EUR/USD. According to the graphical analysis, the pair was supposed to consolidate in the Pivot Point zone of the medium-term side channel in 2018. The level of 1.2215 was indicated as the lower limit, the upper one was 1.2355. At the same time, 35% of analysts suggested that the US dollar will continue to weaken, provoked by data on the labor market, and the pair would be able to break through 1.2355, rising above this level.
It was this scenario that was implemented. The pair climbed 115 points by the middle of the week, reaching the height of 1.2395, after which it turned and returned to where it had been expected - to the medium-term Pivot Point in the zone of 1.2328...
First, a review of last week’s forecast:
– The forecast for EUR/USD turned out to be generally correct: the pair did not go beyond the 2018 mid-term side channel, going down in anticipation of data on NFP, only to the level of 1.2217. As expected, the Nonfarm payroll sagged significantly, more than three times compared to the values of the previous month, to which the pair could not help reacting. However, the reaction was fairly calm: the dollar lost just 60 points to the euro, after which the pair completed the week in the strong support/resistance zone 1.2280...
First, a review of last week’s forecast:
– 60% of analysts, supported by graphical analysis on D1, 100% of trend indicators and 85% of oscillators on H4, expected the EUR/USD to grow, and this forecast turned out to be correct. The pair coped with the task quickly and, having risen by 125 points on Tuesday, reached the height of 1.2475. After this, the trend reversed, the pair returned to the borders of the mid-term side corridor, where it has been moving for the whole of 2018, and completed the week in the zone of its Pivot Point at 1.2325...
First, a review of last week’s forecast:
– EUR/USD has been in a sideways trend for the whole of March, with a slight predominance of bearish trends. This is exactly the kind of movement that was forecasted last week. Pressed by the bears, the pair tried to reach support at 1.2200, but failed even this, and fixed the local bottom at 1.2239. After that, the pair turned around and completed the trading session in the 2018 Pivot Point zone, at 1.2350...
First, a few words about the forecast for the previous week, which proved fully correct for cryptocurrencies:
– EUR/USD. When giving forecast for this pair, a large number of analysts claimed that the pair would continue to stay in the 1.2150-1.2550 side channel which it has been moving in since mid-January. It ended up doing just that, albeit with volatility even lower than expected - the difference between the highest (1.2412) and the lowest (1.2260) points of the week was only about 150 points. By the end of the week, the pair finished at 1.2288, only 17 points below where it had started...
First, a review of last week’s forecast:
– EUR/USD. Most experts (60%) had expected the growth of the euro first to 1.2400, and then even higher to the highs of past January-February at 1.2500-1.2555. In the first half of the week, the pair did go up, but the bulls’ efforts were enough to raise it only to 1.2445, after which the bears played back all the losses, and the pair finished almost at the same place where it started the week, namely 1.2305...
First, a review of last week’s forecast:
– EUR/USD. Recall that almost 70% of experts, supported by an overwhelming majority of indicators, expected the pair to continue falling, naming the vicinity of 1.2165 as one of the targets. They were right - on 1 March, the pair found a local bottom at 1.2155. But then, thanks to the statements of the new Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, and US President Donald Trump, the dollar began to lose its hard-won positions. Trump's words about the intention to introduce import duties on steel and aluminium led to some talking about a new trade war, especially after the sharp and prompt reaction by the Head of the European Commission. As a result, the pair soared by 170 points and completed the week at 1.2320...
First, a review of last week’s forecast. It should be noted that the forecast for bitcoin and other cryptocurrency pairs proved to be almost 100% correct.
– EUR/USD. Recall that, in the short term, only a third of experts expected this pair to fall. When shifting from the weekly forecast to medium-term forecast, however, the number of supporters of the US currency strengthening increased from 30% to 65%. The dollar decided to get ahead of the events and, starting from Monday, dragged the pair down. Analysts named the levels 1.2335 and 1.2235 as targets. The pair ended up reaching the first of them, and almost got to the second one, fixing the local bottom at 1.2259. It then turned and completed the week in zone 1.2295...
First, a review of last week’s forecast. It should be noted that the forecast for bitcoin and other cryptocurrency pairs proved to be almost 100% true.
– The forecast for EUR/USD once again confirmed that the signals of a quarter of oscillators that the pair is overbought / oversold, provide very good reasons to expect a break in the trend. This time, according to 45% of analysts confirmed by such signals, the pair had been expected to turn north and return to zone 1.2350-1.2530, which was what happened. Starting from Monday, the pair was growing steadily and on Friday, it rose to the highs of the last four weeks, reaching the level of 1.2555. After that, the dollar played back 155 points, and the pair fell to the level of 1.2400...
First, a review of last week’s forecast:
– EUR/USD. The publication of positive data on the labor market in the USA (NFP grew by 25%) on February 2, triggered a panic on American stock exchanges. According to experts, the increase in the number of jobs at the same time with an increase in the average wage indicates not the recovery, but the overheating of the world's largest economy...
First, a review of last week’s forecast:
– EUR/USD. 65% of people thought the dollar would strengthen and the pair would fall. Starting from Monday, the pair obediently went to the target indicated by experts, namely 1.2300. However, a little before reaching the set level of 1.2335, the bears lost all their advantage, and, after two unsuccessful attempts to break through this support, the pair turned north...
First, a review of last week’s forecast:
– EUR / USD. Analysts' votes last week were divided almost evenly. More precisely, 55% of them sided with the "bears" and 45% with the "bulls". The fate of the pair was decided by the good and mighty of the world: first it grew following the statements of the US Treasury Secretary on the weak dollar; then it was pushed back up by ECB President Mario Draghi’s speech, resulting in a three-year high at 1.2537...
First, a review of last week’s forecast:
– EUR/USD. The pair never escaped the landmark "zone of the decade", defined by the two-year high of 2017 and the lows of June 2010 and July 2012. Therefore, we did not make a definite forecast last week. Uncertainty reigned in the camp of experts: 40% voted for the growth of the pair, 40% for its fall, and 20% shrugged their shoulders. All were right: the pair grew a little, then declined, then grew again. It eventually finished the week not far from where it started, at 1.2215...
We discuss the opinions of experts on what awaits bitcoin in the coming year, as well as the unique trade offering of the brokerage company, NordFX.
First, a review of last week’s forecast:
– EUR/USD. Recall that the majority of experts (55%), supported by graphical analysis and oscillators on D1, voted for the pair's growth to 1.2200. This forecast turned out to be 100% true: it was at this point that the pair ceased movement at midnight on Friday 12 January. It should be noted that the publication of the minutes of the last ECB meeting, according to which the regulator is planning to curtail its 2.5 trillion-euro bond-buying programme in 2018 - a programme which should seriously accelerate the recovery of the eurozone - contributed to such impressive growth of the euro...
First, a review of last week’s forecast:
– The markets are apparently still on winter vacation. Hence, the pair EUR/USD spent five days in the very narrow lateral channel of 1.2000-1.2085 and completed the five-day period in the same place where it started at 1.2030...
Primeiro, uma revisão da previsão da semana passada:
– As férias de Natal simplesmente não podem ajudar a afetar os participantes do mercado financeiro. Eles são a razão pela qual a maioria dos analistas esperava que EUR / USD se movesse na faixa bastante estreita de 1.1685-1.1900. Na verdade, esse canal acabou por ser ainda mais estreito, terminando sendo 1.1717-1.1862, com as flutuações da semana não superaram os 150 pontos. Assim, a semana não produziu resultados reais: o par terminou em quase o mesmo local onde começou, ou seja, na zona 1.1750...
Primeiro, uma revisão da previsão da semana passada:
– As previsões de médio prazo geralmente se tornam realidade muito mais rápido do que o esperado. 65% dos analistas esperavam que o EUR / USD testasse o ponto intermediário do canal lateral 1.1575-1.2090 - ao longo do qual movia há vários meses - no médio prazo. No entanto, foi apenas na semana passada que o par mais uma vez voltou aos valores de agosto, desafiando completamente as expectativas de curto prazo dos touros...
Primeiro, uma revisão da previsão da semana passada:
– Como a prática mostra, se pelo menos 25-30% dos osciladores indicarem que um par é sobrevendido ou sobrecompra, deve-se esperar uma correção. Foi o que aconteceu na semana passada com o EUR / USD. No início da semana, parecia ter ido para o norte, continuando a tendência principal de novembro, mas a força dos touros secou rapidamente, e logo o par recuou para onde um terço dos analistas e osciladores haviam indicado - para o fundo local na zona 1.1800. No entanto, enquanto o par estava caindo, os touros recuperaram suas forças e no final da semana eles conseguiram trazê-lo de volta ao nível de 1.1900 - praticamente no mesmo lugar onde o par começou na segunda-feira...
Para começar, uma breve análise da semana anterior, que foram bem precisas, em 90% de acertos, para os quatro pares de moedas:
– Em relação ao par EUR / USD, denominamos a previsão com base na análise gráfica como a mais promissora da semana passada. A decisão não foi errada. Lembre-se de que, de acordo com as leituras da H4, esperava-se que o par passasse algum tempo se movendo no corredor lateral na faixa de 1.1700 a 1.1860. Depois de atingir o limite inferior deste canal, era esperado que ele se elevasse bruscamente. Isso é exatamente o que aconteceu: tendo designado um mínimo local no nível de 1.1712 e sendo impulsionado pela decisão de Trump sobre a Coréia do Norte e notícias da Reserva Federal dos EUA, os dois começaram a se dirigir para o norte em 21 de novembro. Alcançou seu máximo em 1.1943 até o final da semana...
Primeiro, uma revisão da previsão da semana passada:
– Lembre-se de que, ao dar a previsão para o EUR / USD, a esmagadora maioria dos especialistas (65%) apoiou o crescimento desse par. Em sua opinião, tendo superado o forte nível de suporte / resistência 1.1665, o par deve subir - primeiro a altura de 1.1725 e, em seguida, mais 100 pontos mais alto...
Primeiro, uma revisão da previsão da semana passada:
– Apenas neste verão, estrategistas de muitos grandes bancos internacionais designaram os máximos de 2015 e 2016 na zona 1.15-1.16 como importante para o EUR / USD. As duas últimas semanas de novembro confirmaram isso: durante todo esse tempo, o par foi movendo-se para o leste ao longo do horizonte 1.1600, e suas principais flutuações, além de incoerências raras, estavam dentro dos limites de 1.1575-1.1660. Foi nesse limite superior do corredor lateral que o par completou a sessão semanal...
De acordo com as estatísticas, mais de 85% das transações nos mercados financeiros são realizadas com a participação do dólar norte-americano e cerca de 30%, com a participação do euro. Então, o que os especialistas esperam do EUR / USD no final de 2017 e em 2018?
Primeiro, uma revisão da previsão da semana passada:
– À medida que as opiniões dos analistas estavam divididas 50/50, decidimos não dar uma previsão clara para EUR / USD pela segunda semana seguida. Em termos do que aconteceu, apesar de os touros terem uma vantagem no início da semana, os ursos finalmente ganharam. A Câmara dos Deputados do Congresso dos EUA estava do seu lado desta vez, permitindo que o Senado aprovasse a reforma tributária de Trump por uma maioria simples. Mas isso não é tudo: na quinta-feira, 26 de outubro, o dólar experimentou uma onda de apoio do BCE, que decidiu ampliar o programa de flexibilização quantitativa da QE e continuar comprando títulos até o final de setembro de 2018. Tudo isso atingiu a moeda europeia com tanta força, que perdeu cerca de 250 pontos contra o dólar em dois dias...
