8 de abril de 2018
First, a review of last week’s forecast:
- The forecast for EUR/USD turned out to be generally correct: the pair did not go beyond the 2018 mid-term side channel, going down in anticipation of data on NFP, only to the level of 1.2217. As expected, the Nonfarm payroll sagged significantly, more than three times compared to the values of the previous month, to which the pair could not help reacting. However, the reaction was fairly calm: the dollar lost just 60 points to the euro, after which the pair completed the week in the strong support/resistance zone 1.2280;
- GBP/USD. The main forecast for this pair was a sideways trend, in the narrow framework of which the pair stayed for the first half of the week. Thursday and Friday brought some volatility, but as a result, the five days change was only about 70 points, and the pair froze at 1.4085;
- The forecast, made by the majority of experts for USD/JPY, was absolutely correct. 55% of them were sure that the uptrend will continue, and the pair will rise to 107.30. And this was what happened - it rose to the level of 107.48, which, taking into account the standard backlash, is almost a 100% hit. As for the end of the five-day period, the pair completed it 60 points below the weekly maximum, at 106.88;
- Cryptocurrencies, just like most major currency pairs, spent all the time in a sideways trend. It seemed in the middle of the week that the bulls took over, and the long-awaited growth of bitcoin, ethereum and other altcoins finally, started. But ... the pairs returned to the values of the beginning of the week. So, the result of the past seven days can be considered inconclusive both for the bulls and for the bears.
As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:
- EUR/USD. Graphical analysis on D1 believes that the pair completed the previous five-day period in the Pivot Point zone of the side channel, in which it will stay for the next few days. The boundaries of the channel are 1.2215 and 1.2355. The most likely breakthrough is to the south and a decline to zone 1.2090-1.2150. Almost 65% of experts agree with such a scenario, supported by indicators on D1.
As for the remaining 35% of analysts and indicators on H4, in their view, the dollar's weakness caused by the data on the US labor market will continue, and the pair will rise to the level of 1.2355-1.2415;
- The main forecast for the GBP/USD is as follows: possible (but not compulsory) small growth to resistance 1.4125, and then falling first to support in the 1.4000 zone, and, in case of its breakdown, a decline to 1.3915-1.3965 zone. This forecast is supported by almost 75% of experts, graphical analysis on D1, as well as about 15% of oscillators signaling the pair is overbought. Only a quarter of analysts agree with the positive outlook and the growth of the pair to 1.4200-1.4240;
- USD/JPY. With a high degree of probability, the mid-term lateral trend which began in mid-February this year, will continue. The only question is a more precise definition of its boundaries. The bulls are supported by about 65% of analysts who expect the pair to rise to the horizon at 108.00. As for the bears, their immediate goal is the level 105.65. In case the dollar continues to lose its positions, the pair may drop to support 105.25 and even another 60 points lower;
- As for cryptocurrencies, it is useless to try to determine the exact levels, considering their super-high volatility. One can only talk about the direction of trends and approximate targets. In the coming week, experts expect that the bulls' efforts will still be rewarded, and starting Monday, April 09, the main pairs may expect growth, although small and temporary, BTC/USD: rise to 7,820-8,360. For the ETH/USD, the target is the zone 440-511, LTC/USD: 155-175, XRP/USD: 0.56-0.67.
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