25 de março de 2018
First, a review of last week’s forecast:
- EUR/USD has been in a sideways trend for the whole of March, with a slight predominance of bearish trends. This is exactly the kind of movement that was forecasted last week. Pressed by the bears, the pair tried to reach support at 1.2200, but failed even this, and fixed the local bottom at 1.2239. After that, the pair turned around and completed the trading session in the 2018 Pivot Point zone, at 1.2350;
- GBP/USD. At the time of writing the previous forecast, the indicators on D1 pointed to the north, believing that both the two-week uptrend and the more global one, which began in January 2017, would continue. This scenario was supported by 40% of experts as well, referring to the height of 1.4145. This forecast turned out to be correct, and at the very beginning of the five-day period the pair went up sharply. Basing on information from the Bank of England on Thursday, March 22, it even tried to break through resistance 1.4145, but failed to gain a foothold above this level, and rolled back very soon. As for the end of the week, the pair spent it making fluctuations around the same level of 1.4145;
- 70% of experts, graphical analysis on D1 and 90% of indicators on H4 and D1 expected the continuation of the USD/JPY movement in the medium-term channel. This was what happened - it dropped to the level of 104.63 on Friday, after which there was a slight retreat, and the pair met Saturday at the level of 104.75;
- Now, cryptocurrencies. As for bitcoin, the experts expected its rise to 8,850-9,400, and by the middle of the week the pair BTC/USD fulfilled the above task, reaching the level of 9,145.
For the pair LTC/USD, a rise to the zone of 170.00-181.00 was forecasted. However, after its fall on Saturday and Sunday, it seemed to be impossible. But the bulls managed to regain strength and managed to raise the pair to a height of 174.00 on Wednesday. Similar dynamics was demonstrated by the Ripple, having risen to the set level of 0.70, but still failing to gain a foothold above it.
But the Ethereum did not please the experts who expected its growth to the level of 655.00. In reality, it was only able to reach 587.00.
As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:
- 60% of analysts expect the pair EUR/USD to rise to the level of 1.2415, and then even higher - to the height of 1.2445. The next target is 1.2520. Graphical analysis on D1, 100% of trend indicators and 85% of oscillators on H4 agree with this forecast.
As for most of the indicators on D1, they have taken a neutral position. This time, 40% of experts and 15% of oscillators side with the bears, giving signals that the pair is overbought. The support levels are 1.2240, 1.2200 and 1.2155;
- GBP/USD. Most analysts (60%) still forecast a decline of the pair first to 1.4115, and in case of its breakdown, even lower - to 1.4080. However, only 5% of the indicators agree with this development. The remaining 95 percent, supported by 40% of analysts, have sided with the bulls, expecting the continuation of the uptrend. The nearest resistance levels are 1.4215 and 1.4275, the final target is January 2018 high, at 1.4345;
- Opinions on the future of the USD/JPY looks almost the same as last week: 70% of experts, 90% of indicators on H4 and D1, look to the south, expecting the pair to continue moving in the medium-term down channel. The targets are 104.00 and 102.65.
At the same time, graphical analysis on D1 warns that, before continuing to fall, the pair may rise to 105.70-106.30 for a while, and possibly even higher - to 107.00. 10% of oscillators, giving signals that the pair is oversold, expect correction as well;
- The forecast for the basic currency pairs looks as follows.
BTC/USD - Experts expect the continuation of the uptrend. Targets that the pair can reach by the middle of the week, are 9,870 and 10,080. At the same time, it is possible that the bullish impulse will be stronger, and it will rise to the zone 11,500-11,750. At the end of the week, there may be a change of trend and a relatively small decline;
Similar dynamics are expected for other pairs. ETH/USD: targets are 740.00 and 866.00. LTC/USD: 193.40 and 217.30. XRP/USD: 0.670, 0.730 and 0.890.
We would like to stress at this point that even minor events can influence the trends and volatility of cryptocurrencies. Therefore, we strongly suggest that you pay attention to smart money management, which, combined with leverage of 1:1000, will significantly reduce your trading risks. After all, to buy 10 Bitcoins, 100 Ethereums, 500 Litecoins or 100,000 Ripples, with such leverage you will only need $100, and you can keep the rest of your money in reserve.
Roman Butko, NordFX