19 de agosto de 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for August 21-25, 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for August 21-25, 2023EUR/USD: What Strengthens the Dollar and What Can Weaken It

The US currency maintained its ascent last week. The minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)'s July meeting of the US Federal Reserve were published on Wednesday, August 16, suggesting the possibility of further monetary policy tightening.

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12 de agosto de 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for August 14-18, 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for August 14-18, 2023EUR/USD: Inflation, GDP, and Prospects for Monetary Policy

Looking at the two-week flat trend on the EUR/USD chart, one is reminded that it's August, a vacation season. Even the US inflation data released on Thursday, August 10th, couldn't disrupt the relaxed demeanour of traders. And yet, they warrant close attention. The year-on-year Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth of 3.2% and core inflation at 4.7% came in below forecasts (3.3% and 4.8% respectively). The monthly CPI remained unchanged at 0.2%, marking the lowest figure in over two years. As for the GDP, previously released data confirmed a diminished risk of the national economy slipping into a recession. After a 2.0% year-on-year rise in the first quarter of 2023, the second quarter recorded a 2.4% growth, significantly surpassing market expectations of 1.8%.

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5 de agosto de 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for August 07-11, 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for August 07-11, 2023EUR/USD: Dollar Bulls Disappointed by NFP

Throughout the past week, leading up to Thursday, August 3, the dollar continued to strengthen its position and build on the offensive that began on July 18. It appears that markets, wary of the global economic condition, have once again turned to the American currency as a safe haven.

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29 de julho de 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for July 31 - August 04, 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for July 31 - August 04, 2023EUR/USD: From Hawks to Not-Yet Doves

The past week was filled with both events and the release of macroeconomic data. Regarding the Federal Reserve meeting on July 26 and the European Central Bank meeting on July 27, there were no surprises in terms of key interest rate hikes. In both cases, they were predictably increased by 25 basis points (bps): to 5.50% for the dollar and to 4.25% for the euro. Therefore, market participants' attention was drawn to the statements made by the heads of these regulators following the meetings.

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22 de julho de 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for July 24 - 28, 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for July 24 - 28, 2023EUR/USD: Awaiting the Federal Reserve and ECB Meetings

When the DXY Dollar Index dropped to April 2022 levels (99.65) on July 14, many market participants concluded that the best days for the American currency were over. Inflation is nearing target levels, and in order not to suffocate the economy, the Federal Reserve will soon initiate a campaign to ease its monetary policy. However, things aren't that straightforward. After reaching a peak of 1.1275 on Tuesday, July 18, the EUR/USD pair reversed and started to decline.

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15 de julho de 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for July 17 - 21, 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for July 17 - 21, 2023EUR/USD: Falling Inflation Has Crushed the Dollar

So, we can either congratulate (or, conversely, upset) everyone with the onset of a global process of dedollarization. As Bloomberg reports, after the inflation rate in the US approached 3.0%, which is not far off the Federal Reserve's target of 2.0%, it seems like a turning point is approaching for the US economy.

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8 de julho de 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for July 10 - 14, 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for July 10 - 14, 2023EUR/USD: Much Depends on the CPI

The Dollar Index (DXY) steadily increased during the past week, leading up to Thursday, July 6. As a result, EUR/USD was more inclined towards the American currency, causing the pair to find a local bottom at the 1.0833 level. The dollar's strength was driven by the publication of the minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) last meeting on June 14. In it, the Committee members highlighted the risks of inflationary pressure and expressed a commitment to swiftly achieve their target inflation levels of 2.0%. They also noted the appropriateness of at least one more interest rate hike, in addition to the one in July, which boosted confidence for DXY bulls. Recall that the head of the regulator, Jerome Powell, also stated at the end of June that the "vast majority of Federal Reserve leaders expect two or more rate hikes by the end of the year".

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1 de julho de 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for July 03 - 06, 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for July 03 - 06, 2023EUR/USD: When Will the Pair Return to 1.1000?

Summarizing the second half of June, the result in the EUR and USD confrontation can be said to be neutral. On Friday, June 30, EUR/USD ended up where it traded on both the 15th and 23rd of June.

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24 de junho de 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for June 26 - 30, 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for June 26 - 30, 2023EUR/USD: Officials' Words Drive the Markets

Just a reminder, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the US Federal Reserve decided on Wednesday, June 14 to pause the process of monetary tightening and left the interest rate unchanged at 5.25%. The following day, on Thursday, June 15, the European Central Bank (ECB) raised the euro interest rate by 25 basis points from 3.75% to 4.00%. ECB President Christine Lagarde noted that the tightening of credit and monetary policy would continue in July.

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17 de junho de 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for June 19 - 23, 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for June 19 - 23, 2023EUR/USD: The Euro's Victory Over the Dollar

The key events of the past week were the meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the US Federal Reserve on Wednesday, June 14, and the European Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee on Thursday, June 15. The outcome of these meetings resulted in a decisive victory for the euro over the dollar.

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10 de junho de 2023

XAU/USD: Historical Overview and Forecast Until 2027

XAU/USD: Historical Overview and Forecast Until 2027Gold is one of the favourite trading instruments of the most successful traders at NordFX. This can be easily confirmed by looking at the monthly rankings published by this brokerage company. That is why it is appropriate to provide a special review, focusing solely on the XAU/USD pair.

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3 de junho de 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for June 05 - 09, 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for June 05 - 09, 2023EUR/USD: Will the Dollar Return to Steady Growth?

The dollar has been rising since May 4. The DXY Index reached the 104.609 mark on the last day of spring, May 31. It hasn't soared this high since January 2023. As we have previously mentioned, two primary factors were propelling the American currency upwards.

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28 de maio de 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for May 29 – June 2, 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for May 29 – June 2, 2023EUR/USD: Dollar Awaits U.S. Bankruptcy

The dollar has been rising since May 4. Last week, on May 26, the DXY Index reached 104.34. It hasn't been this high since mid-March 2023. What is driving the U.S. currency up and, consequently, pushing the EUR/USD pair down? According to analysts at Commerzbank, "the absolute calmness in the options market suggests that the driving force behind the EUR/USD exchange rate is monetary policy considerations rather than ongoing U.S. debt ceiling negotiations." It is worth noting that the probability of a rate hike at the June 14 FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting increased throughout May. At the beginning of the month, the likelihood of a rate increase was close to 0%, but by the end of the month, it reached 50%. It turns out that the U.S. economy is holding up very well compared to other economies, and the deterioration in lending has not been as severe or rapid as initially feared.

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20 de maio de 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for May 22 - 26, 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for May 22 - 26, 2023EUR/USD: Why the Dollar Continues to Rise

We titled our last week’s review "Why the Dollar Rose" and detailed the reasons for the strengthening of the American currency. It's fitting to name today's fresh review "Why the Dollar Continues to Rise," and naturally, we will answer this question.

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13 de maio de 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for May 15 - 19, 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for May 15 - 19, 2023EUR/USD: Why the Dollar Rose

We named the previous review "Market at a Crossroads." We can now say that it finally made a decision and chose the dollar last week. Starting from 1.1018 on Monday, May 8, EUR/USD reached a local low of 1.0848 on Friday, May 12. Interestingly, this growth occurred despite the cooling of the U.S. economy. Not even the prospects of a U.S. debt default or the possibility of a reduction in federal fund rates could stop the strengthening of the dollar.

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6 de maio de 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for May 08 - 12, 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for May 08 - 12, 2023EUR/USD: The Market Is at a Crossroads

Everything happened as it was supposed to. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the US Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 5.25% during its meeting on May 2 and 3. Similarly, the European Central Bank did the same on May 4, increasing the euro interest rate by the same 25 bps to 3.75%. This increase had long been factored into market quotations. Of much greater interest were the statements and press conferences of the leaders of both central banks.

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29 de abril de 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for May 1 - 5, 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for May 1 - 5, 2023EUR/USD: Awaiting Fed and ECB Meetings

The main factor determining the dynamics of the US Dollar Index (DXY) and, consequently, the EUR/USD pair last week was… silence. If recently, the speeches of Federal Reserve representatives were almost the most important market guide, then a silence regime has been in effect since April 21. Leading up to the press conference by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell following the FOMC's May meeting, all officials are instructed to maintain silence. Only a few days remain until the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting, where a decision regarding the regulator's future monetary policy will be made, scheduled for May 2/3. Furthermore, on Thursday, May 4, there will be a meeting of the European Central Bank, where an interest rate decision will also be made. In general, the upcoming five-day period promises to be, at the very least, not dull.

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22 de abril de 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for April 24 - 28, 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for April 24 - 28, 2023EUR/USD: Rate Forecast: USD +0.25%, EUR +0.50%  

Due to the lack of significant economic news, the EUR/USD dynamics in recent days has been determined by statements by representatives of mega-regulators regarding interest rate hikes at the upcoming meetings of the US Federal Reserve on May 2/3 and the ECB on May 4.

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16 de abril de 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for April 17 - 21, 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for April 17 - 21, 2023EUR/USD: The Dollar Continues to Sink

The DXY dollar index updated a 12-month low last week, and EUR/USD, respectively, rose to a maximum (1.1075) since April 04, 2022. The US currency has been falling for the fifth week in a row: the longest series since summer 2020.

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8 de abril de 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for April 10 - 14, 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for April 10 - 14, 2023EUR/USD: Fed rate Divination Continues

The dollar seems to be either weakening or not. On the one hand, the DXY dollar index updated a two-month low on April 4, falling below the support of 101.50, and EUR/USD rose to a new high of 1.0972. On the other hand, the pair returned by the end of last week to where it had already been on March 23 and 31.

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6 de abril de 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for April 03 - 07, 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for April 03 - 07, 2023EUR/USD: Why the Dollar Fell

Last week passed without sharp jumps. The dollar continued to fall in price, and EUR/USD returned by March 30 to where it was traded seven days before. The local maximum was fixed at 1.0925, and the five-day period finished at 1.0842.

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18 de março de 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for March 20 - 24, 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for March 20 - 24, 2023EUR/USD: ECB Not Fazed by Banking Crisis

The past week was marked by a large black candle when EUR/USD plummeted from 1.0759 to 1.0515. And this happened not on Thursday, March 16, when the ECB made a decision on the interest rate, but the day before. The reason for the weakening of the European currency was none other than the head of the National Bank of Saudi Arabia.

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11 de março de 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for March 13 - 17, 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for March 13 - 17, 2023EUR/USD: USA Labor Market Stops USD

Jerome Powell played on the dollar side last week. Of course, the Fed Chairman knew that markets expected an interest rate increase of 25 basis points (bps) from the next FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting. But he did not rule out that his organization could take a more decisive step in an effort to curb inflation and raise it by 50 bp on March 22 at once. Moreover, it had been earlier expected that the rate would reach 5.00-5.25% at the peak. Now Powell and his colleagues do not rule out that its maximum value will be 5.50%. (According to Commerzbank strategists, even an increase to 6.00% is possible).

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4 de março de 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for March 06 - 10, 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for March 06 - 10, 2023EUR/USD: Pause in the 1.0600 Zone

On Thursday, March 02, the DXY dollar index broke again through the bar at 105.00 points but could not stay there. As usual, the dollar was supported by an increase in US government bond yields. The yield on 10-year securities rose to its high since November 10 at 4.09%, the yield on 2-year securities rose to 4.91% and updated its maximum since 2007. The revision of US labor market statistics in Q4 2022 and the ISM Manufacturing Business Activity Index (PMI) in the country's manufacturing sector also supported the US currency. On the other hand, the dollar was pressured by the yuan, which is getting stronger against the backdrop of macro-economic statistics from China. The PMI manufacturing index in China was the highest since 2012. Activity in the service sector has also increased, and the Chinese real estate market has stabilized.

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25 de fevereiro de 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for February 27 - March 3, 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for February 27 - March 3, 2023EUR/USD: FOMC Protocol Strengthens the Dollar

Macroeconomic statistics in both the US and the Eurozone look mixed. In both regions, inflation is slowing down (which is good), but GDP growth is also decreasing (which is bad for the economy). According to the US Department of Commerce, the pace of consumer spending growth in the country for Q4 was +1.4% after +2.3% in Q3 (forecasted at +2.1%). The US GDP growth rate on an annual basis, according to preliminary estimates, will be lower than expected, +2.7% (forecast and previous value +2.9%). However, despite this, labour market statistics look positive enough. The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits, forecasted at 200K, actually decreased from 195K to 192K. According to final data from Eurostat, inflation in the Eurozone slowed down to +8.6% YoY in January (+9.2% a month earlier). Things are becoming more difficult in Germany, the main locomotive of the European economy. According to January data, the annual inflation rate was +9.2% compared to +9.6% in December, but at the same time, the country's GDP also went down, with a decline of -0.4% (forecast and previous value -0.2%). The very fresh February CPI data did not please either, showing an increase from +8.1% to +8.7%.

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18 de fevereiro de 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for February 20 - 24, 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for February 20 - 24, 2023EUR/USD: The Fed Doesn't Hinder the US Economy

January data released on Tuesday, February 14 showed that the US Federal Reserve's victory over inflation is still very, very far away. The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained unchanged on a monthly basis at +0.4%. At the same time, although the annual data were slightly lower than the previous value: +6.4% against +6.5%, they exceeded the forecast of +6.2%. Another portion of American statistics came out the next day, February 15.  After two months of decline, retail sales in the US showed the highest growth rate in almost 2 years, jumping from -1.1% in December to +3.0% in January (against the forecast of +1.8%).

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11 de fevereiro de 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for February 13 - 17, 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for February 13 - 17, 2023EUR/USD: The Fed's Doves Have Turned into Hawks Again

After the US Federal Reserve and ECB meetings, the DXY Dollar Index fell to a new 9-month low of 100.80 on February 02. This happened after the dovish hints of the head of the Fed, Jerome Powell, who, during a press conference following the meeting, admitted for the first time that "the deflationary process has begun." The market has decided that this is the beginning of the end, and that the end of the bullish wave is near.

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4 de fevereiro de 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for February 06 - 10, 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for February 06 - 10, 2023EUR/USD: Three Weeks of Uncertainty

The meetings of the Central Banks were held strictly according to plan last week. As expected, the key rate was raised by 25 bps (basis points) at the US Federal Reserve meeting and reached 4.75%, and by 50 bps at the European Central Bank meeting, up to 3.00%. Since the decisions themselves did not bring surprises, market participants focused on the regulators' plans for the future.

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28 de janeiro de 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for January 30 - February 03, 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for January 30 - February 03, 2023EUR/USD: Next week: Five Days of Storms and Tsunamis

It seems that the whole world celebrated the Chinese New Year last week. There was some volatility in all major currency pairs of course, but we got an almost perfect sideways trend in the end. We will not deny the importance of the New Year holidays, but the reason for the lull, of course, is not in this, but in the key events that are coming next week.

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21 de janeiro de 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for January 23 - 27, 2023

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for January 23 - 27, 2023EUR/USD: The Calm Before the Storm

The DXY Dollar Index (the ratio of the USD to a basket of six other major foreign currencies) has been moving in a fairly narrow sideways channel since January 12. A small surge in volatility was caused by the publication of data on retail sales in the US on Wednesday, January 18. However, everything returned to normal quickly, and DXY continued its eastward journey, sandwiched in the 102.00-102.50 range. EUR/USD behaved similarly, which, having started on Monday at 1.0833, completed the five-day period at 1.0855.

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