9 de maio de 2021
First, a review of last week’s events:
- EUR/USD. There has been a lot of talk for a long time about how quickly and how well the US economy is recovering. But the head of the Fed, Jerome Powell, warned a week ago that everything is still quite fragile, and the acceleration of inflation is a temporary factor. Apparently, he already knew it then, and now everyone else knows it too: not everything is as rosy as it seemed.
The bulk of US macroeconomic indicators released last week are colored red. The ISM business activity index in the manufacturing sector is 60.7 instead of 65.0 as was forecasted. The ADP report on the employment rate in the private sector is 742K instead of the forecasted 800K. The ISM business activity index in the services sector is 62.7 instead of 64.3. And it is a complete disaster with such an important indicator as the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector (NFP): 770K was created in March, 978K was expected in April, but only 266K were actually created, that is, 3.7 times less than the forecast.
Of course, investors had plenty of time to cash in on the recovery of the U.S. economy. And now it seems that the time has come to switch to other regions and, first of all, to the European Union. Moreover, vaccination against coronavirus in Europe is becoming more widespread, EU member states are gradually lifting quarantine restrictions, and the economy is gaining momentum. Unlike the US, retail sales in the Eurozone showed convincing growth, rising from minus 1.5% in March to plus 12.0% in April. And this is against the forecast of 9.6%.
The above has put strong pressure on the dollar and contributed to the strengthening of the European currency. As a result, the forecast given by the majority of experts (60%) came true 100%: the EUR/USD pair went up again and renewed the six-week high on the evening of Friday, May 07, reaching the height of 1.2170. This was followed by a slight rebound and a finish at 1.2165;
- GBP/USD. The forecast has turned out to be absolutely correct in this case as well. This pair has been moving in a side channel 1.3670-1.4000 for 10 weeks. And the majority of experts had voted for the fact that, having rebounced off the central zone of this corridor, the pair would go up and reach its upper border. This is what actually happened. Having started on Monday at 1.3810, the pair reached the height of 1.4000 on Friday, not far from where, at 1.3990, it finished the working week;
- USD/JPY. When making a forecast for the past week, 70% of analysts had pointed to the south. In their opinion, the pair should have dropped below the horizon of 109.00, and the level of 108.40 was called as a support. And that is what happened. True, the bulls made an attempt to repeat the success of a week ago on Monday, but their strength dried up quickly. The pair turned down, reached the local bottom at 108.35 on Friday 07 May, and then put the last chord at 108.60;
- cryptocurrencies. "Bitcoin is disgusting and contrary to the interests of civilization", said Warren Buffett's fellow, 97-year-old billionaire Charles Munger. “Of course, I hate bitcoin's success. I do not welcome currency, which is created out of thin air and is so useful for kidnappers and extortionists,” Munger emphasized.
The 97-year-old investor is now likely be attributed not only to the “sharks” of Wall Street, but also to the “dinosaurs.” Virtual assets go beyond their perception of the world: after all, they are accustomed to dealing with currencies and securities, which have a very real, and not fictitious, basis. Nevertheless, the clink of digital gold is already heard in almost every financial centre on the planet. Financial data provider S&P Dow Jones Indices has even launched indices based on Bitcoin, Ethereum and on the basket with these cryptocurrencies. The S&P Bitcoin Index received the ticker SPBTC, the S&P Ethereum Index - SPETH, and the S&P Crypto Mega Cap Index which tracks the dynamics of these two assets, - SPCMC.
The adoption of cryptocurrencies is growing not only among large institutional investors, but also among the general population. The American financial services giant Mastercard has presented the results of its research conducted in 18 countries in various regions of the world. According to its data, 40% of consumers plan to use crypto assets for their payments next year. Among millennials, the figure is even higher, reaching 67%.
It would seem that all of the above should only benefit digital currencies. But it is not so. Bitcoin is beginning to increasingly correlate with traditional markets. And after bitcoin, altcoins also fall into this bundle. Thus, the crypto market, as well as the stock market, is now heavily dependent on the policies pursued by the White House and the U.S. Federal Reserve. And if fiscal stimulus programs (QE) are cut, the money stream fueling the cryptocurrency market could dry up quickly enough.
Until this happens, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization is showing smooth growth. It grew from $2.110 trillion to $2.375 trillion, that is, by 12.56%, over the past week. At the same time, the capitalization of the altcoin market showed an increase of more than 20%. Bitcoin continues to lose ground. Its Dominance Index was 72.65% on January 2; it reached the level lowest since July 2018, 47.87%, on April 30, but now, over the past seven days, it fell even lower, to 44.24%.
These numbers indicate that the interests of many investors are now focused not on the main cryptocurrency, but on altcoins, which bring significantly higher returns.
The BTC/USD pair made unsuccessful attempts to test $60,000 again over the past week. However, each dash to the north is followed by a rollback to the south. The pair even fell to the level of $52,950 on May 05. But Ethereum, is rewriting one historical maximum after another in the wake of the growing popularity of the DeFi sector, as well as on the eve of the transition to ETH 2.0. Thus, this coin has shown an increase of more than 80% over the past three weeks. And it made its creator, 27-year-old Vitaly Buterin, the youngest billionaire in the world who made his fortune on cryptocurrency. As noted by Forbes, Buterin's fortune has grown by almost 25 times early 2020.
Litecoin keeps pace with Ethereum. We pointed out significant upside potential for this coin back at the beginning of the year. The argument was that, unlike bitcoin, which had already renewed its all-time high, Litecoin was still very far from the $371 high it reached in December 2017. And finally, the LTC/USD pair was again at this top this week, on May 07, showing an increase of 75% just in the last 10 days.
As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:
- EUR/USD. So, the market is again dominated by buyers of shares and sellers of the dollar. As we already mentioned, the weakening of the dollar, which has become almost the main safe haven asset during the pandemic, is facilitated by the growth of inflation expectations, which exceeded 2.4% and reached a high since 2013. The huge financial injections should lead to a record growth in US GDP, which, accordingly, entails an increase in risk sentiment and investors' attraction to the stock market. S&P500 and Dow Jones indices broke their own records again. The former reached the level of 4,238, the latter - 34,732 points. The euro grew together with them, reaching the height of 1.2170.
However, too fast growth of stock indices and a weakening dollar may induce the US Federal Reserve officials to curtail fiscal stimulus programs quicker. Thus, according to Robert Kaplan, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, imbalances in financial markets can lead to the fact that it would be better to raise the issues of folding QE sooner rather than later. Otherwise, the U.S. financial system could be under stress.
As for the opinion of experts for the near future, 60% of them, together with the graphical analysis on D1, expect the correction of the EUR/USD pair to a strong support in the area of 1.2000, and in the event of its breakout, a fall another 100 points lower. The nearest support is 1.2055.
The remaining 40% of analysts, together with the graphical analysis on H4, believe that the pair's uptrend will continue. The nearest target is the February high at 1.2245, the next target is to reach the January 06 high at 1.2350.
The technical analysis readings are as follows: 100% of the trend indicators and 75% of the oscillators on H4 and D1 are colored green at the time of writing this review (Friday night May 07). The remaining 25% of the oscillators give signals that the pair is overbought.
Among the events of the coming week (and there are not so many of them), the publication of data on the US consumer market on Wednesday May 12 and Friday May 14 should be noted. Data on the consumer market in Germany is also due out on May 12;
- GBP/USD. The forecast for this pair for the coming week is exactly the opposite of the previous one. If the majority of experts voted for the rise of the pair from the central part of the 1.3670-1.4000 channel to its upper border a week ago, now 70% of analysts, along with graphical analysis, predict it will return back to its center at 1.3800. The decision of the Bank of England, which kept interest rates and the volume of the quantitative easing (QE) programme unchanged at its May 06 meeting, should contribute to this.
True, the regulator has reduced the rate of asset buybacks and is optimistic about the rate of economic recovery. But demand for the pound is being held back by the decision to hold interest rates until there are clear signs of a recovery in output and an inflation rate of 2%. The only one who voted to cut QE volumes was the chief economist of the Bank of England, Andrew Haldane. But his vote doesn't mean much as he retires in a month.
Only 30% of experts believe that the GBP/USD pair will be able to break out of the 10-week trading range and rise above the level of 1.4000. In this case, it will rush to the February 24 high of 1.4240, and the resistance levels on its way will be the levels of 1.4085 and 1.4180.
As for technical analysis, its readings are very similar to those for the EUR/USD pair: 100% of the trend indicators and 85% of the oscillators on H4 and D1 point north. The remaining 15% of the oscillators give signals that the pair is overbought.
Looking at the economic calendar for the coming week, I recall the movie "The King's Speech", dedicated to the British monarch George VI. It is just that it will the speech ofthe head of the Bank of England, and it will be a whole series, since Andrew Bailey will give speeches on May 11, 12, and 13. However, investors are unlikely to hear anything from him that could seriously affect their mood. Of greater interest are the UK GDP and consumer market data, which will be published on Wednesday May 12;
- USD/JPY. The indicator readings on both time frames look quite chaotic. Only the trend indicators on H4 clearly point to the south: 85% is colored red here. Graphical analysis depicts a gradual decrease in volatility and consolidation of the pair in the zone 108.35-108.50. But 70% of analysts side with the bears for the third week in a row. Supports are at levels 108.40 and 107.85, the target is 107.45.
The remaining 30% side with the bulls, they expect that the pair will try again to rise above the resistance of 109.00 and gain a foothold in the zone 109.00-109.65;
- cryptocurrencies. As mentioned in the first part of the review, many investors have shifted their attention from the main cryptocurrency to the altcoin market. The BTC/USD pair has not yet managed to break above the 50-day moving average and rise above $60,000. But is this a harbinger of a new crypto winter?
If BTC collapses following the domino effect, other coins may follow. But so far, hopes for the growth of the main cryptocurrency are quite real. Despite the fact that the index of its dominance has decreased from 72.65% to 44.24% since the beginning of the year, its trading volumes are quite high: about $70 billion. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, although has reached the level of "greed", 64 points, but is still far from being overbought.
In the medium term, the fact that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) postpones decisions on Bitcoin-ETFs may play against the main cryptocurrency. But many experts are still optimistic. Thus, renowned crypto trader and strategist Mikael van de Poppe has shared a bold prediction for the future of bitcoin. “I am quite confident that we are in a bullish cycle and it is really difficult to rely on a bear market, especially given the inflation of the US dollar,” he said.
“Given the fact that institutional money is flowing in, bitcoin is becoming more widespread. This means that there is now a large demand and a relatively small supply, which will lead to an increase in the price, continues Van de Poppe. - Will Bitcoin get to $300,000 or $500,000? I think so. If we carry out simple calculations, the peak of the BTC rate should be $500,000. Given the data on the top of the cycle, it can be assumed that the average rate will be above $250,000. And it can get to $350,000 - $450,000 within a year.” “But besides, we will have long sideways,” added the specialist cautiously.
Experts at JPMorgan believe that Ethereum may become even more efficient than Bitcoin in the future. They note that this altcoin is more resistant to external factors. Bitcoin, on the other hand, reacts to almost every major fluctuation in the market, which leads to its correction straight away. With a long negative trend, BTC investors begin to withdraw assets quickly.
According to JPMorgan analysts, “Bitcoin is very narrow in its application, which is evident from a variety of factors. It is most often used as an asset for investment. All new major projects are developed on the basis of Ethereum. It has more liquidity. ETH has recently substantially increased its position in the spot market as well. Another advantage of Ethereum is its rather large and developed ecosystem,” they note.
NordFX Analytical Group
Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.