24 de outubro de 2020
First, a review of last week’s events:
- EUR / USD. 40% of analysts predicted the growth of this pair to the 1.1900 zone and were right: the local weekly high was recorded at 1.1880, and the five-day period ended at 1.1860.
Strong macro statistics from the United States, as well as a record increase in the number of COVID-19 infected in the Old World, seemed to reverse the pair's trend south on October 21. But then Europe, together with Germany, showed an increase in business activity. This reduced the chances of a build-up of the European quantitative easing (QE) program and further growth in bond prices, which allowed the pair to return to its weekly highs;
- GBP/USD. The hope of a third of analysts that the uptrend was over and the pair shifted to a sideways movement did not come true: it moved north again, turning the upper border of the sideways channel 1.2845-1.3035 from resistance to support.
The UK and the EU continued negotiations, breaking the deadlock in which they stood since the end of last week. But then... they hit it again. As a result, the pair rushed upwards, but having reached a height of 1.3175, it turned in the opposite direction. Contributing to the decline was the Markit PMI in the UK services sector, which fell from 56.1 to 52.3.
The last chord of the week sounded at 1.3045. This means that the pound still gained 130 points in 5 days, and investors still hope that the UK and the EU can come to an agreement on Brexit. Although the main reason, of course, is not the strengthening of the pound, but the weakening of the dollar;
- USD/JPY. Recall that 30% of analysts, along with graphical analysis, expected the pair to rebound from the horizon at 105.00 and rise to the resistance of 106.00. And they turned out to be right: the pair reached a height of 105.75 by Tuesday October 20.
The remaining 70% of experts, supported by 75% of oscillators and 90% of trend indicators on D1, claimed that the USD/JPY pair will be able to approach the September 21 low of 104.00 at least for a while. And they were not mistaken either: - on Wednesday, October 21, the pair recorded a local low at 104.33, followed by a rebound and a finish at 104.70.
According to experts, such a sharp reversal and a fall from a height of 105.75 to 104.33 were a reaction to the general weakening of the dollar and, first of all, its depreciation against the Chinese yuan. The massive triggering of Stop-Loss orders when the support broke out in the 105.00 zone added fuel to the fire;
- cryptocurrencies. Finally! Bitcoin broke the $12,000 level and even hit the $13,200 high. And, as the CEO of analyst firm CryptoQuant, Ki Yong Joo, predicted, this growth has not led to a massive sell-off of the coin. This gives reason to hope that the main cryptocurrency will be able to gain a foothold in this zone.
Bitcoin has grown by almost 80% since the beginning of 2020. According to the analytical service Glassnode, the number of addresses that store more than 100 BTC has grown to 16,159, reaching the maximum value in six months. The total number of addresses with a non-zero balance is approaching 32 million.
According to another analytical agency, The Block, in addition to the growth in the number of wallets, the number of transactions and the volume of commissions in the BTC blockchain are also growing. Over the past quarter, transactions worth $225 billion were made on this network. That is, on average, users were conducting transactions for $2.4 billion per day. Four months ago, the average transaction was about $25,000, but it jumped 6 times by October 20, reaching $150,000.
Over the past week, bitcoin's gains have been driven by a very positive news background. Large institutional investors such as Square, MicroStrategy, Stoneridge and Mode Global Holdings have turned to Bitcoin. And the news that the payment giant PayPal is adding to its line of services the ability to buy and sell cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin and Bitcoin Cash, came as a "cherry on the cake".
As a result, the benchmark coin rose 13.5% in seven days, pulling the entire crypto market with it, the total capitalization of which increased from $357 to $390 billion.The Crypto Fear & Greed Index rose from the neutral yellow zone to the border of the last quarter of the scale reaching the value of 74. Recall that the range from 75 to 100 is designated by the developers of the index as “Extreme Greed”, which corresponds to the pair BTC/USD being strongly overbought and foreshadows its correction.
As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:
- EUR/USD. If you follow the textbooks on fundamental analysis, macroeconomic statistics is of basic, fundamental importance. However, there was no coronavirus pandemic when these books were written. And now it's here. And it is capable of destroying any predictions.
On the one hand, the incidence schedule in Europe is bursting upward, Germany and France set a new "anti-record" for the number of infected people on Thursday, October 22. Spain has become the first European country to see the number of people falling ill above 1m, putting pressure on the euro. But COVID-19 has hit supply as well as demand.
The situation is similar in the US. The number of coronavirus patients is approaching record levels. But at the same time, the country's authorities do not want to introduce new quarantine restrictions in order to support economic activity. Much, including the mood of the markets, depends on the outcome of the US presidential election on November 3.
According to Deutsche Bank, Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan, Democrat Joe Biden's victory will reduce the likelihood of a new wave of protectionist US policies and allow the pair to reach the 1.2000 mark. If Donald Trump wins again, the dollar, in anticipation of a new round of trade war, is likely to go into growth, and the EUR/USD pair will fall to the lows of September in the 1.1600 zone.
In the meantime, despite the fact that Biden's ratings are higher, investors are in no hurry to get rid of the dollar, because they remember how, unexpectedly for many, Donald Trump became the resident of the White House in 2016. And this can happen again.
The intrigue with the election results will continue after November 3, because they may be challenged, especially those of voting by mail, and the electoral college will meet only on December 14.
Now about the forecast for the coming week. The listed uncertainties prevent analysts from unambiguously pointing in one direction or another. However, 75% of them do not exclude a slight rise in the EUR/USD pair at least to the level of 1.1900. Also, 100% of indicators and 85% of oscillators on H4 and D1 are colored green.
The remaining 15% of the oscillators give signals that the pair is overbought. Its fall is also supported by 25% of experts, supported by graphical analysis on both timeframes. Support levels are 1.1800, 1.1760 and 1.1700. The ultimate goal, as already stated, is 1.1600.
As for the events of the coming week, special attention should be paid to the meeting of the European Central Bank on Thursday, October 29, and especially to the final press conference of its lmanagement, which will be held in the afternoon of the same day. The data on US GDP, which will be released on October 29, and the Eurozone GDP, which will be released a day later, on Friday, October 30, can also influence the formation of local trends;
- GBP/USD. The overwhelming majority (90%) of experts, supported by graphical analysis and trend indicators on D1, believe that the pair changed the echelon 1.2845-1.3035 to a higher one - 1.3000-1.3175. However, this forecast is very short-term, and its further behavior will be determined by the result of the presidential election in the United States, the epidemiological situation on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean and the course of negotiations between the EU and the UK on the terms of Brexit. If the parties show that there will be no withdrawal from the Agreement, this will have a beneficial effect on the pound rate. The situation on this issue should be clarified by mid-November. In the meantime, COVID-19 will continue to play the main role, having the most serious impact on the British economy and especially on finances.
It should be noted that when switching from a weekly to a monthly forecast, the picture changes radically, and here already the majority of experts (60%) and graphical analysis on D1 expect the pair to fall rather than rise: first to the level of 1.2860, and then by another 100 points below;
- USD/JPY. We are waiting for the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision and its management's comment on monetary policy next week, on October 29. But, as usual, we do not expect any surprises from them, and the rate is highly likely to remain at the same negative level, minus 0.1%.
More interesting is the tug of war between the dollar and the yen as safe haven currencies. And here, given the pre-election and pandemic chaos in the US, 75% of experts prefer the Japanese currency as more stable. This scenario is supported by 90% of oscillators and 100% of trend indicators on D1.
Note that, starting in 2016, the USD/JPY pair has fallen below 105.00 for the seventh time. However, it usually lingers there only for a very short time, after which it returns above this mark. The question is still open as to what will happen this time. However, in the medium term, 60% of experts do not exclude that the pair may break through the support of 104.00 and even go down to the zone 102.00-103.00.
As for the graphical analysis, on D1 it draws a sideways movement in the 104.00-105.55 channel within the next three weeks;
- cryptocurrencies. On Friday evening, October 23, the BTC/USD pair is in the $12.860 zone - a new local support/resistance level. If bitcoin holds above $12,800, it promises to be the highest weekly rise in 2.5 years and offers hope for growth to historic highs around $20,000. The immediate challenge is testing the July 2019 high of $13,760.
Bitcoin's rise right now is driven by the pandemic, the monetary printing press that trillions of fiats are coming out of, and the growing popularity of cryptocurrency with large institutional investors. Thus, co-founder of Morgan Creek Digital investment firm Anthony Pompliano increased accumulations in the main cryptocurrency from 50% to 80%.
The number of contracts to buy BTC accumulated in the hands of institutional investors has reached an all-time high, according to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). However, according to the Commitment of traders (COT) reports, hedge funds hold no fewer contracts to sell bitcoin. A number of experts believe that hedge funds do this in order to provide sufficient liquidity for institutional investors.
Popular TV host and long-time bitcoin supporter Max Kaiser agrees with this version. He believes that at current levels, bitcoin futures traders are slowing the price of BTC to give institutional players a chance to "load the boat." However, once the asset reaches the $28,000 mark (the intermediate benchmark set by Kaiser), the number of coins for sale will go zero, and thanks to the deficit, their price will burst up to the cosmic heights.
“For the poor of this world, the current price and availability of BTC,” says Kaiser, “is the only opportunity in life to purchase non-forfeitable hard money before the price of it rises to 40-80 times, and prices will soar to the level of golden parity by around $400,000.”
Turning to the forecast for the coming months, we will cite the opinion of Anton Kravchenko, CEO of the investment company Xena Financial Systems, according to which the rate of the BTC/USD pair may reach $14,000 by the end of the year. 65% of experts agree with this forecast. The fact that the pair could fall to $9,000 was mentioned by 25% of analysts a week ago, now their number has fallen to 15%. The remaining 10% have taken a neutral position.
NordFX Analytical Group
Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.