2 de março de 2019
First, a review of last week’s events:
- EUR/USD. For the first half of the week, the euro was growing due to expectations that the UK’s exit from the EU will be postponed indefinitely. The pair rose above the center line of the medium-term corridor 1.1300-1.1500. However, the last day of winter, February 28, made its own adjustments, inspiring fans of the dollar. The estimate of US GDP for 2018 turned out to be much higher than the forecast. A very strong index of business activity in Chicago played in favor of the dollar. As a result, the pair went down, but the joy of the bears was short-lived. The impulse was so weak that it could not even come close to the support of 1.1300. And after the publication of the ISM Business Activity Index on March 1, which turned out to be worse than the previous value, and worse than the forecast, the pair went up again. This was followed by another unsuccessful attempt to break through the defenses of the bulls, after which the pair completed the week at 1.1365;
- GBP/USD. So, the British Parliament has agreed to the proposal of Prime Minister Theresa May to vote on the impossibility of Brexit without a deal with the EU, as well as the need to postpone the withdrawal of the country from the European Union. Please note: this is not a postponement of the Brexit date, but only the consent of the Parliament to put this issue to a vote. But this was enough for the pound to grow by 300 points and reach the height of 1.3350 by the middle of the week. And then everything was, as in the case of the euro: some restoration of the dollar's position, then sad statistics from the US on Friday, and as a result, the final chord of the pair is at the level of 1.3200;
- USD/JPY. The quotes of the Japanese currency last week were influenced by two unpleasant factors. Firstly, it is the continuing growth of the risk appetites of investors and the capital outflow to countries with developing economies. The second blow was the growing, due to the positive statistics released on Thursday, yield of US Treasury bonds.
Recall that last week 70% of experts voted for a further fall of the yen and the rise of the pair to the level 111.50-112.50. Due to these factors, this forecast turned out to be accurate, and the pair recorded the week high at the height of 112.07, after which it completed the five-day week at 111.90;
- Cryptocurrencies. As is often the case in this market, the biggest jumps in quotations happen during the weekend, after which the market falls into hibernation on working days. It so happened this time as well. On Saturday, February 23, Bitcoin took off to the height of $4,280, after which, no less quickly, crashed to $3,810, after which it moved to lateral movement, one approaching, one moving away from the key horizon of $4,000. Other top coins, Ethereum, Litecoin, Ripple and others, showed similar dynamics. At the same time, the pairs LTC/USD and XRP/USD completed the seven-day period almost at the same place where they started, once again confirming the opinion that there are no really serious drivers capable of forming a really powerful trend for the entire market.
The total market capitalization for the week fell by 7.8%, from $141 billion to $130 billion.
As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:
- EUR/USD. Statistics show that in 2018, the US economy grew by 2.9%. President Trump promises that in 2019 it will continue to grow, naming a figure of 3.0%. Logic suggests that in such a situation it is necessary to actively buy dollars. However, unlike Trump, the Fed predicts a recession and a fall in GDP up to 2.3%. If we add the assurances of the ECB of the steady growth of the Eurozone economy by 0.5% in each quarter of 2019 to this, the situation no longer seems so unambiguous.
The analysts' forecasts look the same ambiguous, their opinions are divided exactly in half, 50% are for the growth of the pair, 50% are for its decline. At the same time, according to the version of both, the pair is likely to stay in the corridor 1.1300-1.1500, in which is moving from the end of October 2018. Of course, emissions to extremes are not excluded, however, in this case the range of oscillations will be slightly wider - 1.1215-1.1570.
If we go from a weekly to a medium-term forecast, there is already a majority among supporters of the European currency (65%), who predict the growth of the pair to the 1.1700-1.1800 zone.
Now a few words about technical analysis. More than 80% of the indicators are colored green, but already 15% of the oscillators on D1 give signals that the pair is overbought. As for the graphical analysis, it draws the wave-like movement of the pair in channel 1.1215-1.1455 on the daily time frame.
Of the important events of the upcoming week, attention should be paid to the ECB meeting on Thursday, March 7, at the end of which it will perhaps become clear who will be the next chairperson of this bank. Also, traditionally, volatility in the markets can be added by data on Eurozone GDP on Thursday and statistics on the US labor market on Friday, March 8;
- GBP/USD. Of course, last week’s optimism regarding the pound was a temporary phenomenon. A possible postponement of Brexit is nothing more than a delay, not a solution. And it will become clear only in the middle of the month whether it happens at all. On March 12, a second vote will be held on the deal, and in case of another failure of Ms. May, on March 13, the question will be raised that the United Kingdom could not leave the EU without an agreement. If the Parliament approves such a decision, the next day, lawmakers will be able to vote for a delay in negotiations, which means that Brexit will be postponed to a later date.
Nobody knows what impact Brexit itself and its postponement will have on the economy of the British Kingdom. But so far, a slight advantage is with the bears: 60% of analysts predict the pair to fall to the level of 1.3115, the following supports are 1.2965 and 1.2830. The remaining 40% of experts believe that the pound, having pushed off from the support of 1.3200, can still grow and reach the levels of 1.3315, 1.3470 and in the medium term - 1.3615;
- USD/JPY. Growing risk appetites and oil prices give the majority (65%) of experts a reason to expect a further fall in the yen and the pair's growth to the level of 112.25-113.25. The ultimate goal is 114.20. The graphical analysis on D1 also agrees with this development of events. However, already about 20% of the oscillators on H4 and D1 give signals the pair is overbought, which is a precursor of a fairly strong downward correction. Therefore, in the transition to the monthly forecast, already 70% of analysts vote for the trend reversal and the decline of the pair to 110.25. The next support is at 109.15;
- Cryptocurrencies. In general, despite some subsidence of the crypto market, the news background in this area looks quite positive. After JPMorgan was the first of the US banks to test its own digital coin, JPM Coin, everyone is waiting for the development of similar projects from Facebook and Telegram. And the introduction of cryptocurrency in WhatsApp should cover 35% of the world's population. In such a situation, crypto enthusiasts predict the next take-off for digital currencies. So, for example, according to IBM Vice President for Blockchain Jesse Lund, the price of the reference cryptocurrency will exceed $5,000 by the end of 2019, and then it will start to rise sharply and eventually reach $1 million.
It is clear that the prediction about a million dollars for 1 BTC is not even a forecast, but a dream. But with respect to the near future, most experts (65%) are positive, considering that Bitcoin will definitely consolidate above the $4,000 level, rising to the $4,300-4,600 zone. However, the number of pessimists, as before, is quite large, 35%. In their opinion, we will soon see BTC quotes around $3,200-3,500.
Roman Butko, NordFX
Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.